Overview
This project focuses on developing and evaluating data-driven methods for predicting recidivism and measuring the accuracy of crime prediction tools. In collaboration with the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), this work contributed to the NIJ Recidivism Forecasting Challenge—a national competition to advance the state of the science in recidivism prediction—and synthesized findings from winning approaches. A parallel line of research examines hot-spot mapping metrics and crime forecasting indices, proposing improvements to better support evidence-based decision-making by law enforcement and policymakers.
Publications
Government Reports
A Synthesis of the 2021 NIJ Forecasting Challenge Winning Reports
V.M. White, R. Rief, C.D. Hudgins, M. Pimsler, J. Hunt
National Institute of Justice,
2025.
NCJ: 309826
Results from the National Institute of Justice Recidivism Forecasting Challenge
C.D. Hudgins, V.M. White, D.M. Applegarth, and J. Hunt
National Institute of Justice,
2022.
NCJ: 304110
Sentinel Event Review for Successful Transition and Reentry Together (START) Program in the Eastern District of Wisconsin
C.D. Hudgins, V.M. White, R. Kane, M. O'Brien
National Institute of Justice,
2024.
NCJ: 307990
Journal Papers
A discussion of current crime forecasting indices and an improvement to the prediction efficiency index for applications
V.M. White, J. Hunt, and B. Green
Security Journal,
2024.
https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00367-4
Conference Proceedings
Measuring How Relatively "Good" a Hot-spot Map Is: A Summary of Current Metrics
V.M. White and J. Hunt
2022 IISE Annual Conference and Expo,
2022.
Link to PDF
In the News
Corrections Today (pages 12–16)
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